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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #781
    Senior Member E7ITE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dkabab View Post
    What’s everyone’s predictions for when everything will come back to some normality.

    By normality I mean shops open and trading no restrictions on business etc.
    I reckon the end of winter.

    But the govt need to step in and tell banks to freeze mortgage repayments for now , at least that will ease off some pressure on households.

  2. #782
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    Quote Originally Posted by E7ITE View Post
    I reckon the end of winter.

    But the govt need to step in and tell banks to freeze mortgage repayments for now , at least that will ease off some pressure on households.
    Banks are already giving 6 months payment holidays.

    Water and electricity suppliers and councils need to do their bit.

    And landlords need to help as well
    Tooth hurty

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondi View Post
    If we shut the whole place down totally, make everyone self isolate for 3 to 4 weeks and bring in the ADF to do food and supply drops, the modelling has shown that it will stop this thing in it's tracks.

    Then things can slowly go back to some sort of normal but Australia would have to shut it's borders for at least 6 months. We would have to become our own little eco-system.

    I don't thing it will ever go back to the way it was, I firmly believe that this is a reset and that we are damned lucky it won't cause the end of our civilisation.
    What's the repercussions for someone who breaks quarantine/crowd rules?

    I know of two parties in the past week in Australia where the partygoers tested positive; should they be shoved in a jail cell until business returns to normal since they've shown that they can't be responsible and are willing to put people at risk for their own benefit?

  4. #784
    Senior Member Fil-Ski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-DC View Post
    What's the repercussions for someone who breaks quarantine/crowd rules?

    I know of two parties in the past week in Australia where the partygoers tested positive; should they be shoved in a jail cell until business returns to normal since they've shown that they can't be responsible and are willing to put people at risk for their own benefit?
    Call the cops

  5. #785
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    Quote Originally Posted by M500 View Post
    We are in a similar situation currently, I have a similar sized team and may be faced with the same tough decisions to make. How did they take the news of reduced hours/ pay or being stood down? With the stand down staff, how have you done that without risking backlash?
    We have done the same with staff in one of our business's that has been hit by the downturn.

    Everyone is down to .6 at the moment

    The legal aspect to it are very tricky unless you are Qantas and Flight Centre and use a special provision in the fairwork act. I can send you a guide if you would like just PM you email or anyone else who requires it.

    We also gave the employees the option to be terminated if the government benefits would outweigh what they would get as a salary.

    Everyone was understanding. The would rather forgo now in the hope that they have a job at the end of this. If they donít itís rather simple - no one will have a job and itís not going to be easy to find a new one.

  6. #786
    Senior Member goober's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dkabab View Post
    Whatís everyoneís predictions for when everything will come back to some normality.

    By normality I mean shops open and trading no restrictions on business etc.
    Koala is closed, no one wants a car. The truck side is ok, forward bookings are few, people are booking day to day. As at 8am this morning all truck rental companies were booked out for today, tomorrow is looking good and Monday is so far ok. Cant say what the rest of the week brings but we're getting enquiries for next weekend (people somehow still have a job).

    Spoke to my relationship manager yesterday and they are putting all equipment finance and commercial borrowings on a freeze for 6 months. We can still trade with minimal staff (me and one other). Manager also said any enquiries for housing loans are based on 80% borrowings and valuations based on valuer general (i.e. council rates), this will give us an issue if it follows suit for those that have commercial or residential borrowings at 60%, they'll breach covenants. I would hope there would be leniency once we come out of hibernation. In all honesty I think financially we won't see the other side for between 2 to 5 years at best. The way we do business forever will change and maybe just maybe we start manufacturing again and not be reliant on China.
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  7. #787
    Senior Member looney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amgsl55 View Post
    Banks are already giving 6 months payment holidays.

    Water and electricity suppliers and councils need to do their bit.

    And landlords need to help as well
    But this still doesn't stack up for the 2.5m small property investors out there.

    Tenant gets 6 months free rent
    bank gets everything they want becasue they still charge interest and capitalise it and it compunds.
    Landlord wears the loss, and still has to pay rates and other maintenance for that 6 month period. (obviously commercial and res. are different in some regards)

    it needs to be balanced. surely everyone should shoulder some of the cost, not just the guy in the middle. I'm of course expecting to be 25-50% worse off after all of this, but if a tenant gets free rent, and $550 per week to be on ScoMo's surf team for that time, how is it fair? I'll still be liable for my $6k interest per month in bank payments, it would just be added to my principal for 6 months.

  8. #788
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    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...bPdxtbKa3ZngTc



    What 'flatten the curve' actually means
    Professor Blakely says the strategy favoured by the Federal Government is not designed to stop transmission.

    Rather, it aims to slow it to a manageable level so hospitals don't get overwhelmed.

    "You don't go in too hard because you actually want the infection rate to pick up a bit and then hold," he said.

    Shutting down non-essential services and encouraging people to stay home and isolate are strategies designed to slow the spread of COVID-19.

    "What they're not saying is [that] 'flatten the curve' likely means [that] by the time this is over, 60 per cent of us will have been infected, to develop herd immunity," he said.

    Coronavirus questions answered
    Coronavirus questions answered
    Breaking down the latest news and research to understand how the world is living through an epidemic, this is the ABC's Coronacast podcast.
    Professor Blakely argues this type of herd immunity is the only way to ensure there is no resurgence of the virus once physical distancing and shutdown restrictions are lifted, and borders are re-opened.

    Herd immunity — when a large proportion of a population has immunity from a disease because they have either been vaccinated or previously contracted it — disrupts chains of infection, and helps protect everyone.

    And that means a majority of Australians would need to contract coronavirus to keep the rest of the population safe.

    Clinical epidemiologist at the University of Newcastle, Craig Dalton, says under this strategy the number of beds in intensive care units would serve as a guide as to how high the numbers of confirmed cases can be allowed to rise.

    "When it comes to lifting restrictions it's like turning the tap of cases on or off depending on how full hospitals are," he said.

    An empty train platform
    PHOTO: Sydney has been deserted since the coronavirus lockdown. (ABC News: Glen Moret)
    Epidemiologist Professor Hassan Vally, from La Trobe University, said herd immunity was not straightforward, and warned it would be "reckless" to deliberately spread the virus through the community.

    "Letting the virus run through the population just doesn't make sense. We would be left with a lot of deaths and our health system would be overrun," he said.

    "We know it's not just people over 80 who are susceptible to this virus. We already have young people in hospital and intensive care, too."

    Some people in the United Kingdom initially pushed for a more rapid spread of the virus to help develop herd immunity, but Dr Vally said that thinking had since been abandoned.

    "We want to slow the transmission of the virus and ultimately stop its spread [in Australia]," he said.
    What's the other option?
    The "eradication" strategy means trying to contain the virus completely, but Professor Blakely and Dr Dalton both believe it is a gamble.

    This week, New Zealand's Government implemented a massive month-long COVID-19 crackdown.

    Police are patrolling the streets, and everyone who is not an essential worker has been ordered to stay home.

    No interactions with people outside the family home are allowed, and all schools are closed.

    Your questions on coronavirus answered:
    What are the new quarantine rules if I arrive in Australia from overseas?
    What are stage 3 restrictions?
    Is coronavirus airborne and how does it spread?
    "It's not guaranteed to work — maybe a 50:50 shot," Professor Blakely said.

    The strategy requires borders to stay closed or be strictly controlled until a vaccine arrives. That could be 12 to 18 months away.

    Dr Dalton says while he prefers this strategy, it would require containing every case of the virus — or risking a resurgence once the lockdown was relaxed.

    He says it is too late to do that in Australia.

    "Four to six weeks alone will begin blunting the force of it, but I don't think it's enough, we'll need to be fairly restrictive for six to 12 months at least," he said.

    Sydney Opera House
    PHOTO: Circular Quay is usually a popular spot for tourists. (ABC News: Glen Moret)
    When will we know which one works?
    NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says it will take seven to 14 days to know if the "flatten the curve" measures are working.

    The data is being closely watched so the success of the strategies could be measured.

    The challenge for those in charge is finding the least-worst solution.

    "One is go hard and go fast, the other is about a scalable proportionate response," Professor Kelly said in a press conference.

    A difficult decision for our health authorities, in desperate times.
    Tooth hurty

  9. #789
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    Quote Originally Posted by goober View Post
    The way we do business forever will change and maybe just maybe we start manufacturing again and not be reliant on China.
    That's gonna be the biggie. Considering the wage and regulatory cost difference though that means there's going to be massive demand for automation if manufacturing in western countries is going to happen. Either that or we all deal with higher prices of goods.

    First industry to come to mind that's going to get wrecked by anti-China sentiment is solar. Anything currently to do with solar is basically guaranteed to be made in China.

  10. #790
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    Don't know if you can see this on Twitter but it's a scary description of one persons experience with the virus

    https://twitter.com/ShirazMaher/stat...396246018?s=20

    Starts with this -

    """I've been debating about whether to 'go public' on having coronavirus - which I kind of did inadvertently this morning. So, now I may as well share my experience(s) with you in order to help those who are worried about it or who are thinking they might have it. Here goes... 1/"""
    Last edited by dodger; 28-03-20 at 05:43 AM.
    Tommy Gunna

  11. #791
    Administrator mondi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by looney View Post
    But this still doesn't stack up for the 2.5m small property investors out there.

    Tenant gets 6 months free rent
    bank gets everything they want becasue they still charge interest and capitalise it and it compunds.
    Landlord wears the loss, and still has to pay rates and other maintenance for that 6 month period. (obviously commercial and res. are different in some regards)

    it needs to be balanced. surely everyone should shoulder some of the cost, not just the guy in the middle. I'm of course expecting to be 25-50% worse off after all of this, but if a tenant gets free rent, and $550 per week to be on ScoMo's surf team for that time, how is it fair? I'll still be liable for my $6k interest per month in bank payments, it would just be added to my principal for 6 months.

    I haven't heard anything about "Free Rent". My managers are saying there will be a negotiation on reductions but it won't go to zero.
    Resident Bogan

  12. #792
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJB View Post
    I'm personally of the view that NZ are taking a better approach right now - swift, decisive, not delaying the inevitable - but what will be equally interesting is to see how businesses in NZ recover compared to businesses in AUS, particularly in hospitality and retail. That's when we'll ultimately be able to make the call over which strategy was less damaging.

    I'm also unsure as to why we are keeping shopping malls and retail stores open, given there's nobody going to them. From a Gov view, what is the economics behind that? Seems to be setting up the retail sector for failure. Some stores apparently aren't closing due to fear of rent payments or Fair Work employee implications, but surely the longer they stay open now the harder it will be for them to return once all this is over? Why haven't the Gov shut them already?

    Many retailers (Myer, Oroton, Cotton On, Kathmandu in the last 24 hours alone) are already making the decision to close now rather than wait and bleed more money.
    They should take the Solomon Lew scorched earth approach. Close the stores immediately, lay off all staff so the Government can pay them. Staying open just increases the financial losses.
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  13. #793
    Senior Member 360c's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amgsl55 View Post
    retail can shift to online presence only. They have that luxury.
    Not as easy as it sounds, and if you do you are competing with the Amazons of the world.
    300kph+ club

  14. #794
    Senior Member 360c's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amgsl55 View Post
    Banks are already giving 6 months payment holidays.

    Water and electricity suppliers and councils need to do their bit.

    And landlords need to help as well
    I read Bendigo Banks fine print on small business assistance yesterday. They say that any change made to repayments will show up on your credit history.
    300kph+ club

  15. #795
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    Quote Originally Posted by 360c View Post
    Not as easy as it sounds, and if you do you are competing with the Amazons of the world.
    No not easy, sure you can set up an online store but who's going to see it ?
    SEO these days is hellishly expensive and you'll always be beaten by the ads top and bottom of the results so you have to pay per click and against the likes of the majors ?
    Good luck.
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  16. #796
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-DC View Post
    What's the repercussions for someone who breaks quarantine/crowd rules?

    I know of two parties in the past week in Australia where the partygoers tested positive; should they be shoved in a jail cell until business returns to normal since they've shown that they can't be responsible and are willing to put people at risk for their own benefit?
    Toorak apparently has 100 people supposed to be in self isolation. One wealthy married couple were dobbed in to the Cops after being spotted wandering around Toorak and Portsea. No fucks given.
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  17. #797
    Senior Member looney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondi View Post
    I haven't heard anything about "Free Rent". My managers are saying there will be a negotiation on reductions but it won't go to zero.
    it all depends on the circumstance. Solomon Lew yesterday shut all of his stores and is refusing to pay rent, no question. And he does have the means to fight it tooth and nail, some tenants are asking for free rent, and in some other countries the government has mandated "zero" rent (phrased more like you don't have to pay rent).

    as for here in Australia, all of my RP's have Landlord protection insurance. It gives e 20 weeks of rent cover for a defaulting tenant. However if i reduce the rent, it reduces my cover, so I have to stick to my guns (and tell the tenants that I'm trying to claim insurance), however if the government places some embargo on evictions, then my policies may become invalid because a government action has affected my ability to follow due process and to be able to claim. So I'm happy for my tenants to stay, and I'll claim it off my insurance, but if the government intervene and invalidate all of these policies they will have something to answer for as well.

    They said on Tuesday night "tomorrow we will announce measures to deal with rents", yet here we are on Saturday with still no direction. That at least tells me they're fighting it out behind closed doors. I just hope enough of those people fighting are politicians with Investment Properties who are trying to make sure they're not the ones to be left holding the bag.

  18. #798
    Senior Member looney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 360c View Post
    Toorak apparently has 100 people supposed to be in self isolation. One wealthy married couple were dobbed in to the Cops after being spotted wandering around Toorak and Portsea. No fucks given.
    @$$holes

  19. #799
    Senior Member 360c's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by looney View Post
    But this still doesn't stack up for the 2.5m small property investors out there.

    Tenant gets 6 months free rent
    bank gets everything they want becasue they still charge interest and capitalise it and it compunds.
    Landlord wears the loss, and still has to pay rates and other maintenance for that 6 month period. (obviously commercial and res. are different in some regards)

    it needs to be balanced. surely everyone should shoulder some of the cost, not just the guy in the middle. I'm of course expecting to be 25-50% worse off after all of this, but if a tenant gets free rent, and $550 per week to be on ScoMo's surf team for that time, how is it fair? I'll still be liable for my $6k interest per month in bank payments, it would just be added to my principal for 6 months.
    Worse still, you could carry the tenant for 6mths and they go broke or can't find another job anyway. You then still owe the bank, you've lost 6mths income and you still end up with a vacant property anyway.
    300kph+ club

  20. #800
    Senior Member looney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 360c View Post
    Worse still, you could carry the tenant for 6mths and they go broke or can't find another job anyway. You then still owe the bank, you've lost 6mths income and you still end up with a vacant property anyway.
    yup.

    Just had an offer on one of my properties (and it was actually a good offer). so will take it and head for the hills with my cash.

    now lets see what bank's and valuers are going to do in these times? o_O

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