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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #601
    Senior Member Fil-Ski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhh View Post
    Why does the whole world need to do it? Just keep borders closed and only open them to people who test clean. If Spaniards are dying in the streets, and it looks like they will be, isn't it their problem?
    The risk is you will get a secondary outbreak.

    It's easier for Australia. We could lock down for two weeks and hopefully we flatten the curve. We then test every single person arriving from overseas on the spot (a 15 minute test is coming). If you are clean you can leave the airport if you are not put in quarantine at the airport for 14 days.

    I just can't see this working in Asia or Europe or even the USA for that matter.

  2. #602
    Senior Member looney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhh View Post
    Compared to the UK in full lockdown, we are still nowhere near where we need to be. The longer we have half-arsed measures, the more people will die and the more businesses will fail.


    It's unfortunately not as simple as that.

    Australia has said they want to "flatten the curve" not "starve out the virus"

    these are 2 separate approaches. Flattening the curve tries to keep the virus growing at a manageable rate, "starving the virus" puts everyone in lockdown for 4 weeks, in a hope to completely stop the virus spread. Of course neither option is ideal, as option 1 drags on until we get a vaccine. Option 2 has a high failure likelihood because there will be selfish people who will not adhere to a strict lockdown.

    I dont know what the right answer is, but either way I'm glad I'm not left to make the decision and wear the whinging from the public. I've started working from home today and anticipate I'll be here for 3 months at this rate.

  3. #603
    Senior Member Condor Man's Avatar
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    This is Brilliant!

    Let's get over this thing and move the fuck on!

    Trump has the right attitude and many should follow.

    Is it a Bird?? Well, sort of, Yes.... 300kph+ club

  4. #604
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    Quote Originally Posted by Condor Man View Post
    This is Brilliant!

    Let's get over this thing and move the fuck on!

    Trump has the right attitude and many should follow.
    One hour 54 min? Got a summary??
    Chief Test Pilot

  5. #605
    Senior Member shack's Avatar
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    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    The conspiracy theorist in me "smells something here" - check the date of the event !!!!

    "Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
    In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019."

    SURE !!!!!
    Last edited by shack; 24-03-20 at 05:47 AM.
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  6. #606
    Senior Member goober's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shack View Post
    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    The conspiracy theorist in me "smells something here" - check the date of the event !!!!

    "Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
    In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019."

    SURE !!!!!
    Yup
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  7. #607
    Senior Member Condor Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhh View Post
    One hour 54 min? Got a summary??
    Yes.

    Basically he says let's get the fuck on before there is a massive economic downturn which will lead to more deaths.

    He talks about 50,000 deaths from the flu.... not to mention car accidents and then says so should we ban driving?

    He says lets not forget that if we have to isolate all of the world has to do it at the same time.... not possible.

    He has his 2nd chief medical advisor that is a real numbers person and she is completely data driven and totally makes sense why the mortality rate is much lower than we think as many people that have or had it won't get tested.

    Definitely worth the watch for sure. For Trump and Dr Deborah Birx.

    Hopefully ScoMo takes the same approach.
    Is it a Bird?? Well, sort of, Yes.... 300kph+ club

  8. #608
    Senior Member Condor Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shack View Post
    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    The conspiracy theorist in me "smells something here" - check the date of the event !!!!

    "Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
    In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019."

    SURE !!!!!
    Did you see that on Netflix?

    What about this little video from YouTube 5 years ago?

    Last edited by Condor Man; 24-03-20 at 06:46 AM.
    Is it a Bird?? Well, sort of, Yes.... 300kph+ club

  9. #609
    Senior Member Fil-Ski's Avatar
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    We are going to crash our economy to into a brick wall and depressing the accelerate harder each day with these stupid decisions to lock down. I blame social media in part for leading our politicians down this path.

    In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

    The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

    One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

    If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

  10. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fil-Ski View Post
    I read a post from a Doctor working in the USA and basically he said for some of the people dying 2020 would be their last year and the regular flu would have got them.

    theres no question that the bulk of deaths have some co-morbidities attached which would have on their own led to the persons death regardless, but there are some healthy people that are in ICU suffering with covid-19.

    There's a good argument in letting the virus run it's course, but that will overwhelm the hospital system to the point that they wont be able to treat other situations that could be critical - motor vehicle accidents, acute infections, workplace injuries etc.

    Lockdown will slow the spread but once lockdown is relaxed then there will be a secondary spread. the key is to get a vaccine fast tracked or if you can, stock up on plaquenil.

    The other effect of lockdown - we will see an elevated suicide rate.

    there is no easy answer
    Tooth hurty

  11. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhh View Post
    Here's what we are in for

    Attachment 474297

    thats doing the rounds.....I reckon it's spam
    Tooth hurty

  12. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by mhh View Post
    Why does the whole world need to do it? Just keep borders closed and only open them to people who test clean. If Spaniards are dying in the streets, and it looks like they will be, isn't it their problem?
    the problem is the quarantine is "self quarantine", not all are playing by the rules.

    Anything wrong with Manus Island?
    Tooth hurty

  13. #613
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    Quote Originally Posted by looney View Post

    these are 2 separate approaches. Flattening the curve tries to keep the virus growing at a manageable rate, "starving the virus" puts everyone in lockdown for 4 weeks, in a hope to completely stop the virus spread.
    That is not so easy, we are learning new things about the virus all the time

    It's tiny, like really tiny
    It can stay on surfaces for 9 days and remain active
    If it gets airborne it can circulate for 3 hours - good luck in a large ducted aircon system without a decent HEPA filter
    It has been found in faecal matter 4 weeks after a person is symptom free.
    Tooth hurty

  14. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by shack View Post
    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    The conspiracy theorist in me "smells something here" - check the date of the event !!!!
    are you thinking the virus was manufactured?
    Tooth hurty

  15. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by amgsl55 View Post
    thats doing the rounds.....I reckon it's spam
    It’s not spam. Mary and I have friends in common.
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  16. #616
    Senior Member 360c's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amgsl55 View Post
    theres no question that the bulk of deaths have some co-morbidities attached which would have on their own led to the persons death regardless, but there are some healthy people that are in ICU suffering with covid-19.

    There's a good argument in letting the virus run it's course, but that will overwhelm the hospital system to the point that they wont be able to treat other situations that could be critical - motor vehicle accidents, acute infections, workplace injuries etc.

    Lockdown will slow the spread but once lockdown is relaxed then there will be a secondary spread. the key is to get a vaccine fast tracked or if you can, stock up on plaquenil.

    The other effect of lockdown - we will see an elevated suicide rate.

    there is no easy answer

    Good luck with Plaquenil, totally out of stock and on restricted supply list if and when it comes back.
    300kph+ club

  17. #617
    Senior Member Fortis's Avatar
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    Mortality rate for sub 50 year old is extremely low, 0.4% why not quarantine over 50’s and allow everyone else to carry own and work?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-60E...&feature=share
    Last edited by Fortis; 24-03-20 at 10:56 AM.
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  18. #618
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    Quote Originally Posted by 360c View Post
    Good luck with Plaquenil, totally out of stock and on restricted supply list if and when it comes back.

    I've got enough
    Tooth hurty

  19. #619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fortis View Post
    Mortality rate for sub 50 year old is extremely low, 0.4% why not quarantine over 50’s and allow everyone else to carry own and work?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-60E...&feature=share
    hey.....I just hit 50.
    Tooth hurty

  20. #620
    Senior Member Joel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fortis View Post
    Mortality rate for sub 50 year old is extremely low, 0.4% why not quarantine over 50’s and allow everyone else to carry own and work?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-60E...&feature=share
    Because as you mentioned that is common sense.

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